[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 17 Jun 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 18 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
During this period the solar wind speed stayed between 330 and
350 km/s, total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 and 5 nT, the
Bz component of IMF varied between +3 and -4 nT and the particle
density showed a gradual increase from 1 ppcc to 7 ppcc. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Due to the effect
of some patchy negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind stream
may get slightly strengthened for the next three UT days (18
to 20 June). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00011000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 21100000
Townsville 1 01111001
Learmonth 1 01111000
Alice Springs 0 00001000
Culgoora 0 00010000
Gingin 0 00011000
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 1 00021000
Hobart 0 00011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 1 11111000
Mawson 6 41121110
Davis 2 11121100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
19 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed
at quiet levels through UT day 17 June. Due to the effects of
small negative polarity coronal holes, global geomagnetic activity
may rise to unsettled levels on UT days 18 and 19 June with some
possibility of isolated active periods during this time. Global
geomagnetic activity may be expected to return to unsettled and
then to quiet levels through UT day 20 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements.
MUFs may be expected to stay around the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days (18 to 20 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun -7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs in Aus/NZ regions may be
expected to stay around the predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days (18 to 20 June).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list