[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 June 19 issued 2339 UT on 09 Jun 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 10 09:39:53 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 9 June. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. A small CME was observed 
in STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 08/0109 UT, mostly likely 
associated with a filament eruption near the centre of the solar 
disk that was observed in GONG Halpha images starting around 
07/2134 UT. Initial modelling shows that the CME is expected 
to arrive at Earth on 12 June. Very Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 10-12 June. During the UT day 9 June, 
the solar wind speed peaked at 474 km/s at 09/0434 UT then decreased, 
currently around 370 km/s. The IMF Btotal started the UT day 
varying around 10 nT then decreased, currently around 4 nT. Bz 
started the UT day varying between +/-6 nT, then decreased after 
09/0400 UT, currently varying between -4 to +3 nT. On UT day 
10 June, the solar wind is expected to continue to return to 
background conditions. The solar wind is expected to become moderately 
enhanced later on 11 June due the influence of a northern hemisphere 
coronal hole and on 12 June due the possible arrival of a small 
CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111100
      Cocos Island         2   21111100
      Darwin               2   21101101
      Townsville           4   32111110
      Learmonth            4   22210111
      Alice Springs        5   21------
      Culgoora             2   21101100
      Gingin               4   22111210
      Canberra             2   21101100
      Launceston           3   22111110
      Hobart               2   21101100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   11011000
      Casey                7   33220211
      Mawson              18   45331233
      Davis               11   33331231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   1102 3454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
12 Jun    13    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 9 June. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in Antarctica, with a period of Active to 
Minor Storm levels at Mawson early in the UT day. For the next 
UT day, 10 June, the global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mainly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Geomagnetic activity 
may increase to Active levels later on UT day 11 June or on 12 
June due to the arrival of high speed streams from a coronal 
hole and the possible impact of a small CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced. 
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid 
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable 
HF conditions are expected for 10 June. Occasional enhancements 
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere, 
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high 
latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian 
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 10-12 June, MUFs are 
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:   11.3 p/cc  Temp:    25500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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