[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 June 19 issued 2348 UT on 08 Jun 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 9 09:48:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 8 June. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 9-11 June. During the UT day 8 June, the solar wind speed
started between 270-280 km/s, then increased after 08/1200 UT,
reaching a maximum of 429 km/ at 08/2110 UT, currently around
410 km/s. The IMF Btotal started the UT day varying around 5
nT then began increasing at 08/0850 UT, reaching a maximum of
20 nT at 08/1522 UT, currently around 10 nT. Bz reached a minimum
of -17 nT at 08/1542 UT. On UT day 9 June, the solar wind is
expected to continue to be moderately enhanced due to a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. On UT day 10 June, the influence
of the coronal hole should start to wane. The solar wind is expected
to be come enhanced later on 11 June due the possible influence
of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 00022442
Cocos Island 8 00022433
Darwin 10 11122442
Townsville 11 11132442
Learmonth 14 10132453
Alice Springs 9 01022442
Culgoora 9 01022442
Gingin 10 10022443
Canberra 8 00021442
Launceston 12 00021453
Hobart 8 00011442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 00011451
Casey 9 11121343
Mawson 35 31122467
Davis 34 22132367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 20 Quiet to Active, with a chance of isolated Minor
Storm periods
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region at the start of the UT day 8 June, then increased
to Unsettled to Active levels later in the day, with some sites
experiencing Minor Storm levels. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica at the start of the UT, then Minor
to Severe Storm levels later in the day. For the next UT day,
9 June, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly
at Quiet to Active levels, with a chance of isolated Minor Storm
periods. Conditions should return to Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 10-11 June as the influence of the coronal hole wanes. In
the SWS magnetometer data for 08 Jun, a weak (7nT) impulse was
observed at 1001UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed across the mid
and high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere. Variable
HF conditions are expected for 9 June. Occasional enhancements
are possible across all latitudes. For the Northern hemisphere,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high
latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity. For the Southern
hemisphere, near predicted monthly MUFs are expected with disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 2
Jun -11
Jul -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 10 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values, possible
moderate depressions at high latitudes
10 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
over some Australian ionosonde sites. For 9-11 June, MUFs are
expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels, with
moderate enhancement in MUFs possible in mid-latitudes and moderate
depressions possible in high latitudes on 9 June due to recent
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 11700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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