[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 19 issued 2346 UT on 30 Jul 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 31 09:46:27 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days, 31 July to 02 August. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 30 July, the solar wind speed started near 
its background levels, then began to gradually increase after 
30/0700 UT, reaching a maximum of 494 km/s at 30/2324 UT. The 
total IMF (Bt) also started to gradually increase after 30/0700 
UT reaching a maximum of 11.25 nT at 30/2228 UT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -8.58 nT at 30/1924 
UT and is currently varying between +/-9 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain enhanced on UT days 31 July and 01 August 
due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial 
coronal hole, then begin to weaken on 02 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   00013322
      Cocos Island         6   10013322
      Darwin               5   10013312
      Townsville           6   11013322
      Learmonth            7   01013422
      Alice Springs        5   00013322
      Culgoora             5   00013322
      Gingin               5   00002331
      Canberra             4   00002322
      Launceston           7   00013422
      Hobart               4   00002322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00002211
      Casey                7   11121332
      Mawson              19   41112355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2320 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active
01 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 30 July, with some 
sites observing an isolated Active period. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region, with Mawson experiencing 
Active to Minor Storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels for the next two 
UT days, 31 July and 01 August due to the effects of a recurrent 
equatorial coronal hole, returning to Quiet to Unsettled levels 
on 02 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 31 July to 02 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 30 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next 
three UT days, 31 July to 02 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    40500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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