[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 July.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 30 July to 01 August. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 29 July, the solar wind speed was steady near
its background levels, varying between 340-390 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-6 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mainly at background levels for the next
UT day (30 July). On UT day 31 July the solar wind is expected
to start increasing in response to an approaching recurrent negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole and remain enhanced on UT day
01 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11201001
Townsville 3 11211102
Learmonth 2 11210100
Alice Springs 2 11200001
Culgoora 1 11100101
Gingin 1 11100100
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 11111100
Hobart 1 01100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 4 22221100
Mawson 10 43322201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2111 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 5 Quiet
31 Jul 10 Unsettled to Active
01 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 29 July. Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated Active
period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly
at Quiet levels for the next UT day, 30 July. On UT days 31 July
and 01 August, conditions could reach Unsettled levels and at
times even to Active levels due to the effects of the approaching
recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 30 July to 01 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 29 July. Cocos Island Region experienced Minor to Moderate
depressions in MUFs during the local day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ
regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 30 July to 01 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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