[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 19 09:31:26 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 18 July. 
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 18 July, the solar wind speed mostly varied 
between 370 km/s and 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 1 nT and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied mostly in the range +4/-3 nT. The particle density varied 
between 1 ppcc and 6 ppcc during most parts of this day. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days,19-21 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011011
      Cocos Island         1   11001100
      Darwin               2   11001111
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            2   11011111
      Alice Springs        0   00001001
      Culgoora             2   11011011
      Gingin               1   10000011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   00011000
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Mawson              10   32212134
      Davis                8   22322123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2321 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     5    Quiet
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 18 July. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 
UT days (19 to 21 July) with a small chance of some unsettled 
conditions on UT day 19 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 19 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (19 to 21 
July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    -3    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    -3    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul    -3    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 17 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (19 to 21 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    81200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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