[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 17 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 18 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 17 July.
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 17 July, the solar wind speed mostly varied
between 375 km/s and 400 km/s reaching 505 km/s at 0718 UT, the
total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2.5 nT and 7 nT, the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly in the range +3/-5 nT.
The particle density varied between 1 ppcc and 6 ppcc during
most parts of this day. The solar wind stream may show some strengthening
on UT day 18 July due to the influence of some scattered small
negative polarity coronal holes. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days,18-20 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12202001
Cocos Island 2 12201001
Darwin 2 12201001
Townsville 5 22212012
Learmonth 4 22212001
Alice Springs 3 12202001
Culgoora 3 12202001
Gingin 3 12202011
Canberra 1 02101000
Launceston 4 12213001
Hobart 4 12203001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 02113000
Mawson 15 34321125
Davis 22 23522036
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1121 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 6 Quiet, small chance of isolated unsettled conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 17 July. Global geomagnetic activity
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3
UT days (18 to 20 July) with a small chance of some unsettled
conditions on UT day 18 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
on UT day 18 July. Some periods of minor depressions were also
observed on low latitudes. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (18 to
20 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul -3 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 17 July. Some periods
of minor depressions were also observed on low latitudes. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (18 to 20 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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