[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 16 09:31:34 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 15 July. 
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 15 July, the solar wind speed varied mostly 
between 330 km/s and 500 km/s and then gradually decreased to 
nearly 410 km/s by 2300 UT. During this period, the total IMF 
(Bt) varied mostly in the range 2.7-7 nT reaching 9.8 nT at 0820 
UT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly in 
the range +/-4 nT reaching -7.3 nT at 0852 UT. The particle density 
varied between 1 and 4 ppcc during most parts of this day. The 
solar wind stream may show some strengthening on UT days 16 and 
17 July due to the influence of some scattered small negative 
polarity coronal holes. Very low solar activity is expected for 
the next 3 UT days,16-18 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12131110
      Cocos Island         2   11121010
      Darwin               5   12231011
      Townsville           6   12232111
      Learmonth            6   12232120
      Alice Springs        4   12231010
      Culgoora             3   12121110
      Gingin               4   12122120
      Canberra             1   01021000
      Launceston           5   12132210
      Hobart               2   11021110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   11032200
      Mawson              23   33334263
      Davis               24   23343264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2010 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 15 July. Global geomagnetic 
activity may be expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 
16 and 17 July (UT days) and at quiet levels on 18 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 15 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (16 to 18 
July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 15 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (16 to 18 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    84800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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