[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 15 09:31:24 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 July. 
The visible solar disk is spotless, Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days,15-17 July. There were no Earth-directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 
14 July, the solar wind speed remained around 430 Km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-2 nT, mostly neutral. 
The solar wind speed is expected to become moderately enhanced 
from today, 15 July due to the influence of a small negative 
polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           3   21101112
      Learmonth            4   21211112
      Alice Springs        3   13101101
      Culgoora             2   11101111
      Gingin               3   2-210012
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Launceston           4   21201112
      Hobart               1   11100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   10100011
      Mawson              19   43211236
      Davis               21   43322136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1112 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    15    Quiet to Active
16 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region for the UT day 14 July. Quiet to Unsettled 
levels are expected for 15-17 July due to the influence of a 
small negative polarity coronal hole. A period of significant 
southward Bz component could produce an isolated Active period, 
today, 15 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
14 July. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 15-17 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs observed Southern 
AUS/NZ regions local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar conditions are expected 
for UT days 15-17 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    89000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list