[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 6 10:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 January. There 
is currently one sunspot region on the visible solar disc, AR 
2732, which is located near the west limb of the visible solar 
disk. During the next three UT days, 6-8 January, solar activity 
is expected to remain mostly very low with a remote chance for 
C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed observed during the 
last 24 hours was near moderate level of 500 km/s. This is in 
response to high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent 
trans-equatorial coronal hole. During this period the total IMF 
(Bt) ranged between 4 nT and 12 nT and the north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -8 nT and +8 nT. The two day outlook 
(UT day 6-7 January) is for the solar wind to remain near these 
moderately elevated levels as the effects of the coronal hole 
persist.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33222222
      Cocos Island         7   322212--
      Darwin              10   24411122
      Townsville          10   33232222
      Learmonth           11   33232322
      Alice Springs        9   322321--
      Culgoora             9   33222222
      Gingin               9   332222--
      Canberra             6   32222111
      Launceston          14   43333322
      Hobart              13   43333212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    16   332442--
      Casey               42   566423--
      Mawson              21   453323--
      Davis               81   44549346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1012 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 5 January. Storm levels were 
observed in Antarctica. During the next 2 UT days, 6-7 January, 
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly between 
quiet and unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible 
today, UT day 6 January. The predicted disturbed geomagnetic 
activity is because the earth is currently under the influence 
of moderately elevated solar wind speeds associated with the 
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the 
next 3 UT days, 6-8 January, as a consequence of the increase 
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan   -19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available .
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On 5 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted 
monthly levels and moderately depressed levels. Strong Sporadic 
E occurrences were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. 
Depressions are likely on 6-7 January due to the increase in 
geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:   18.6 p/cc  Temp:    34600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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