[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 January. There
is currently one active region on the visible solar disc, AR
2732; on 4 January it has produced one B-class flare. During
the next three UT days, 5-7 January, solar activity is expected
to remain mostly very low with a small chance for C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind parameters observed during the last 24
hours show arrival of the corotating interaction region and high
speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) was gradually
increasing from 4 nT to to 12 nT, currently near 10 nT, and the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -10 nT and
+10 nT. The solar wind speed was mostly near its background level;
however, at the end of this period it has reached moderate levels,
currently near 400 km/s. On 5 January, the solar wind speed may
increase up to strong levels, 500-600 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 11222332
Cocos Island 7 01122233
Darwin 8 11123332
Townsville 10 12233332
Learmonth 10 01233333
Alice Springs 9 11223332
Culgoora 7 01222332
Gingin 9 11222333
Canberra 7 01222332
Launceston 8 12222332
Hobart 7 01222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 01213432
Casey 14 34323233
Mawson 13 32223343
Davis 13 23332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 12 Unsettled
06 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 4 January.
During the next 3 UT days, 5-7 January, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet and unsettled
levels. Isolated active periods are possible during 5-6 January.
The predicted increase in geomagnetic activity is due to arrival
of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind
streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the
next 3 UT days, 5-7 January, as a consequence of the increase
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Jan -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
35%
07 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On 4 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted
monthly levels and moderately depressed ones. Strong Sporadic
E layers were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next UT day,
5 January. Depressions are likely on 6-7 January due to the increase
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 12100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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