[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 5 10:30:18 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 January. There 
is currently one active region on the visible solar disc, AR 
2732; on 4 January it has produced one B-class flare. During 
the next three UT days, 5-7 January, solar activity is expected 
to remain mostly very low with a small chance for C-class flares. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. The solar wind parameters observed during the last 24 
hours show arrival of the corotating interaction region and high 
speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) was gradually 
increasing from 4 nT to to 12 nT, currently near 10 nT, and the 
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -10 nT and 
+10 nT. The solar wind speed was mostly near its background level; 
however, at the end of this period it has reached moderate levels, 
currently near 400 km/s. On 5 January, the solar wind speed may 
increase up to strong levels, 500-600 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11222332
      Cocos Island         7   01122233
      Darwin               8   11123332
      Townsville          10   12233332
      Learmonth           10   01233333
      Alice Springs        9   11223332
      Culgoora             7   01222332
      Gingin               9   11222333
      Canberra             7   01222332
      Launceston           8   12222332
      Hobart               7   01222332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     9   01213432
      Casey               14   34323233
      Mawson              13   32223343
      Davis               13   23332333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan    12    Unsettled
06 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 4 January. 
During the next 3 UT days, 5-7 January, the global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet and unsettled 
levels. Isolated active periods are possible during 5-6 January. 
The predicted increase in geomagnetic activity is due to arrival 
of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind 
streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the 
next 3 UT days, 5-7 January, as a consequence of the increase 
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
06 Jan   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                35%
07 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: On 4 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted 
monthly levels and moderately depressed ones. Strong Sporadic 
E layers were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. 
Near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next UT day, 
5 January. Depressions are likely on 6-7 January due to the increase 
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    12100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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