[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 3 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 January. There
is currently one active region on the visible solar disc, AR
2732; on 2 January it has produced two B-class flares. During
the next three UT days, 3-5 January, solar activity is expected
to remain mostly very low with a small chance for C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours gradually
decreased from 390 km/s to 330 km/s. During this period the total
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -2 nT and +2 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background level at the
beginning of the next UT day, 3 January, then it may increase
up to moderate levels due to expected arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 02/0210UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 1 10100101
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 1 11000100
Alice Springs 1 01100101
Gingin 1 11110100
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 1 10100101
Hobart 0 00100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Casey 6 22311211
Mawson 5 31112111
Davis 104 99222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1132 2000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 2 January. Mostly quiet conditions were observed
in Antarctica. During the next 3 UT days, 3-5 January, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet
and unsettled levels. The predicted increase in geomagnetic activity
is due to expected arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions are possible on 3 January as a
consequence of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January
and is current for 3 Jan only. Mild MUF depressions across the
Australian region as compared to the monthly predicted levels
were observed during 2 January. Strong Sporadic E layers were
seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 3-5 January, due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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