[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 2 10:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 1 January. There
is currently one region with sunspots on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three
UT days, 2-4 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed during
the last 24 hours gradually decreased from 470 km/s to 390 km/s.
This was in response to the waning effects of the recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt)
varied around 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between -4 nT and +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near its nominal levels over the next UT day, 2 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21222001
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 3 21211001
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 4 21222001
Alice Springs 3 11222000
Gingin 3 20222001
Canberra 3 12222000
Launceston 5 13222011
Hobart 3 12222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 11244000
Casey 14 35323211
Mawson 11 33233203
Davis 10 33333201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3212 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be quiet for 2 January, then it is expected to reach unsettled
levels upon arrival of the corotating interaction region and
high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible on 2
January as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 1-2 Jan. On 1 January, MUFs varied mostly
between near predicted monthly levels and moderately depressed
ones. Strong Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 January, due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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