[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 19 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
19-21 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 18/1712 UT. On UT day 18 February,
the solar wind speed was mostly near background levels, ranging
between 330 and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 1 nT
to 7 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the
range +/-6 nT at the start of the UT day then decreased to +/-3
nT. During the next UT day, 19 February, the solar wind speed
is expected to start increasing in response to the approaching
high speed solar streams associated with the recurrent positive
polarity patchy coronal hole. The enhanced solar winds should
continue on UT day 20 February then begin to wane on UT day 21
February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22112101
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 3 21111101
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 4 22112200
Alice Springs 3 21012101
Culgoora 3 11112101
Gingin 3 31012100
Canberra 3 12112100
Launceston 4 22212101
Hobart 3 12212100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 23122100
Casey 12 34432111
Mawson 15 44232233
Davis 12 43332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Active
20 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region and Quiet to Active levels were seen in
Antarctica on UT day 18 February. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to Unsettled levels and occasionally
Active levels on UT days 19-20 February in response to the expected
arrival of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent positive polarity
patchy coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on UT day 21 February as the influence of the coronal
hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 18 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in Southern
hemisphere during the next three UT days, 19-21 February, due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. Moderate enhancements
were observed in Northern Australian and Cocos Island regions
during the local night. Moderate depressions were observed in
the Northern Australian region during the local day. During the
next three UT days, 19-21 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted levels. However, mild to moderate depressions
are possible due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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