[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 27 10:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26 Dec. There are currently
two active regions on the visible disk, 2753(S29E28) and 2754(N25,W41).
Region 2754 has faded while region 2753 is shrinking. Very Low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days,
27-29 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery. During 26 Dec, the solar wind speed increased
from its background levels to around 410 Km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 3 nT-9 nT. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, varied between +/-6 nT. This disturbance is due to anticipated
weak coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed may remain slightly
enhanced today 27 Dec, returning to background levels on 28-29
Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 32101111
Cocos Island 3 32100100
Darwin 4 32101111
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 7 42111212
Alice Springs 4 32101101
Gingin 5 42100111
Canberra 3 22100111
Hobart 4 32110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 21110000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 16 33212245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 26 Dec, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region with an isolated
Active period early UT day. The Antarctic region observed Quiet
to Active conditions with an isolated Minor storm period. The
increased geomagnetic activity is due the coronal hole effects.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels for the next three days, 27-29 Dec, with a chance of isolated
Unsettled periods today, 27 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days, 27-29 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 26 Dec. Mild MUFs
depressions observed at Niue Island region local day. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over most sites. For the next three days,
27-29 Dec, mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over
the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list