[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 22 Aug 2019

Fri Aug 23 09:31:28 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 22 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 23-25 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 22 August, the solar wind speed was near its 
background level. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between 
-3 and +2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mainly 
at background level for the next three UT days, 23-25 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111121
      Cocos Island         3   11110121
      Darwin               4   12111121
      Townsville           4   22111121
      Learmonth            4   21121121
      Alice Springs        4   21111121
      Gingin               2   11110021
      Canberra             3   11111021
      Launceston           5   21122031
      Hobart               3   11121021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   --220010
      Casey                6   22321111
      Mawson              13   32221235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2210 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     5    Quiet
24 Aug     5    Quiet
25 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 22 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. During the next three 
UT days, 23-25 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 23-25 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones during 
UT day 22 August. Mild depressions were observed at times across 
Northern Australian and Equatorial regions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F 
occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs are expected 
to range mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days 23-25 
August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    28000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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