[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 22 09:31:41 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 21 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 21 August, the solar wind speed varied between 
420 and 350 km/s, exhibiting a declining trend. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied in the range 2 to 5 nT. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be mainly at background levels for the next three UT days, 
22-24 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101100
      Cocos Island         2   21110110
      Darwin               2   11200111
      Townsville           3   11211111
      Learmonth            2   11211100
      Alice Springs        1   01100100
      Gingin               1   11101100
      Canberra             1   01101000
      Launceston           2   11102101
      Hobart               2   01102100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000---
      Casey                5   23220101
      Mawson              11   43321320

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     7    Mostly Quiet
23 Aug     5    Quiet
24 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 21 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
Quiet to Active levels were observed. During the next three UT 
days, 22-24 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly at Quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 22-24 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones during 
UT day 21 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted 
monthly levels for UT days 22-24 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    86700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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