[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 6 09:31:42 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 05 August. 
There is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2746. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 06-08 
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 05 August, the solar wind speed 
has increased from 310 km/s to 710 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2 nT to 23 nT, the maximum value being reached near 05/0900 
UT due to arrival of the corotating interaction region associated 
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -19 nT near 05/0700 
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during 
the next three UT days, 6-8 August, due to high speed solar wind 
streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Major 
Storm

Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      25   13456322
      Cocos Island        14   13344322
      Darwin              16   13345321
      Townsville          21   13455322
      Learmonth           22   13355432
      Alice Springs       21   13455322
      Culgoora            25   13456322
      Gingin              23   03455432
      Canberra            25   13456322
      Launceston          37   03467323
      Hobart              35   02467322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    72   02678633
      Casey               21   24344523
      Mawson              61   24665476

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             37                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1120 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug    20    Active
07 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels to Major Storm levels of geomagnetic 
activity were recorded in the Australian and Antarctic region 
on UT day 05 August due to arrival of the corotating interaction 
region and high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent 
trans-equatorial coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to decrease to Unsettled to Minor Storm levels on UT 
day 06 August as the coronal hole effects wane. Then the conditions 
are expected decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels by UT day 
08 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days in response to the disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions associated with the trans-equatorial coronal hole. 
Mildly to moderately depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
are expected for high to mid latitudes on UT day 6 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed during 
UT day 5 August. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly 
near predicted monthly values across the Southern Australian 
region. Moderate enhancements during the local night and moderate 
depressions during local day were observed across Northern Australian 
Region. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over 
some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay 
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days, 06-08 August. However, mild to moderate depressions are 
likely for Southern Australian Region and Antarctica.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    32900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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