[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 19 issued 2339 UT on 04 Aug 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:39:36 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 04 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days, 05-07 August. There were no 
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
On UT day 04 August, the solar wind speed continued to decline 
and is currently around 320 km/s. There was a short period of 
slightly elevated solar wind speeds of 360-380 km/s between approximately 
04/0630 UT and 04/0900 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 
2 to 4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) reached 
a minimum of -4.5 nT at 04/0746 UT. The solar wind is expected 
to become enhanced on UT day 05 August due to a recurrent trans-equatorial 
positive polarity coronal hole, then begin to decrease on UT 
day 07 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01211000
      Cocos Island         1   00210000
      Darwin               2   11210001
      Townsville           3   11311001
      Learmonth            3   11311100
      Alice Springs        1   00200001
      Culgoora             2   01211000
      Gingin               1   00201100
      Canberra             1   00211000
      Launceston           2   01212100
      Hobart               2   01211100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   11211120
      Mawson               5   20331110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug    20    Unsettled to Minor Storm
06 Aug    20    Unsettled to Minor Storm
07 Aug    14    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for 5 Aug only. In the SWS magnetometer data for 04 
Aug, a weak (7nT) impulse was observed at 0717UT. Mainly Quiet 
levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian 
and Antarctic region on UT day 04 August, with some sites observing 
an Unsettled period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to Unsettled to Minor Storm levels on UT days 05-06 
August, due to the forecast arrival of high speed streams from 
a trans-equatorial coronal hole. Conditions should decrease to 
Quiet to Active levels on UT day 07 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
06 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderately poor HF conditions are expected in 
the high latitude regions for the next 3 days in response to 
the forecasted disturbed conditions associated with the trans-equatorial 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 04 August, with moderate enhancements during the local 
night over most sites. The Cocos Island and the Northern Australian 
regions had minor depressions during the local day. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in the Australian/NZ regions are expected to stay mostly near 
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 05-07 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    27800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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