[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 5 10:30:37 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 04 Apr. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery and region 2737 (N12W09) 
has decayed over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 377 km/s and 450 km/s between 00UT and 13UT after which 
it increased to 511km/s. Solar wind speed has since ranged between 
447km/s and 527km/s and is currently 472 km/s at the time of 
this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +1 nT and -2 nT between 00UT-08UT before a notable southward 
Bz excursion between 09UT-10UT where Bz reached -7nT. Bz then 
fluctuated between +6nT and -7nT for the remainder of the UT 
day. Solar wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated over 
the next 24-48 hours due to coronal hole effects. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, with only 
slight chance for C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21232321
      Cocos Island         5   11122320
      Darwin               7   21132311
      Townsville           7   21232311
      Learmonth            8   21232321
      Alice Springs        7   11232320
      Culgoora             6   11132310
      Gingin               9   21132421
      Canberra             6   11132310
      Launceston          10   21243321
      Hobart              10   11243321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   21153320
      Casey               16   34423332
      Mawson              28   53333463
      Davis               16   44333331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   2433 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    12    Unsettled
06 Apr    12    Unsettled
07 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed for the AUS/NZ regions on 04 Apr with notable Active 
to Minor Storm periods observed for Antarctic regions. Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible isolated 
Active periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions and possible Minor 
Storm periods for Antarctic regions due continued coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 04 Apr, with 
Low latitude enhancements to mildly depressed MUFs at Mid latitudes 
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days with 
the chance of significantly depressed MUFs for High to Mid latitudes 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      -7
Apr      -12
May      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   -15    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 04 Apr with 
slightly enhanced conditions for Equatorial regions during local 
day and night and minor depressions were observed for Northern 
Australian Region during local day. MUFs near predicted monthly 
values for Southern AUS and NZ regions. Periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 UT days with the chance of notable 
MUF depressions for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    68000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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