[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 4 10:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 03 Apr. There is currently
one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk, Region
2737, which is now located near N12E05. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 04-06 Apr, with only
slight chance for C-class flares. The solar wind speed ranged
between 350 km/s and 470 km/s over the UT day and is near 470
km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between
2 nT and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +4 nT and -7 nT, being mostly negative. Solar wind speed
is expected to be moderately elevated for 04-05 Apr due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 22234222
Cocos Island 6 22122221
Darwin 8 22233212
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 11 22234223
Alice Springs 9 12234122
Culgoora 9 12234122
Gingin 10 22134132
Canberra 12 12235122
Launceston 12 12235222
Hobart 12 12235122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 17 12346111
Casey 13 34323132
Mawson 23 54323335
Davis 16 34433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0000 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
05 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions on 03 Apr. For Southern
Australian Region an isolated Minor Storm period was observed.
Quiet to Active global geomagnetic conditions are expected for
04 Apr due to coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for 05-06 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 03 Apr at Low
latitudes, ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to mildly enhanced
ones. MUFs near predicted monthly values for mid latitudes, while
occasional disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days with
the chance of significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for 03 Apr with
slightly enhanced conditions for AUS/NZ regions during local
night and for Equatorial regions during local day and night.
Minor depressions were observed for Southern Australian Region
during local day. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions with otherwise MUFs near predicted monthly
values. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days
with the chance of notable MUF depressions for Northern AUS and
Southern AUS/NZ regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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