[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 18 issued 2337 UT on 29 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 30 09:37:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 September,
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 30 September
and 1-2 October, solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
SOHO LASCO imagery up to 29/2012 UT. The solar wind speed increased
over the last 24 hours, reaching 486 km/s at 29/2218 UT, currently
around 465 km/s. The IMF Bt reached 7.9 nT at 29/0248 UT and
is currently varying between 4-8 nT. The IMF Bz was mainly southward
for the first part of the day, reaching a minimum of -6.7 at
29/0522 UT, and currently varying between -4 to 5 nT. The three
day outlook (30 September to 2 October) is for the solar wind
to remain moderately enhanced due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22233112
Cocos Island 5 22221112
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 9 32233112
Learmonth 6 22222112
Alice Springs 6 22222112
Culgoora 8 22233112
Gingin 9 22223223
Canberra 8 22233112
Launceston 10 23233213
Hobart 8 12233212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 12454111
Casey 13 24432113
Mawson 23 44332316
Davis 15 24432214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3331 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
on the UT day 29 September across the Australian region. The
Antarctic region experienced Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions
with isolated Minor Storm periods. The outlook for the UT day
30 September is for Quiet to Unsettled conditions. On 1 October,
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods
are expected, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 2 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
01 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
02 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region experienced Minor depressions
during the local day, otherwise they were mostly near monthly
predicted levels on UT day 29 September. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values with possible Minor depressions are expected
for the Australian region on UT days 30 September to 2 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 27900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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