[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 18 issued 2338 UT on 28 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Sep 29 09:38:49 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 28 September, 
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot 
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 29-30 
September and 1 October, solar activity is expected to remain 
at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 28/1112 UT. The solar wind 
speed peaked at 440 km/s at 28/0315 UT then started decreasing, 
currently around 370 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1-6 nT at 
the start of the UT day 28 Sep, then varied between 2-4 nT in 
the later half of the day. The IMF Bz started the UT day mainly 
southward, varying between -4 to 1 nT then mainly northward between 
+/-2 nT after about 28/0800 UT. The two day outlook (29-30 September) 
is for the solar wind to continue to return to nominal conditions. 
On 1 October, the solar wind is expected to become moderately 
enhanced due to a recurrent negative-polarity equatorial coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   13210011
      Cocos Island         2   12210000
      Darwin               3   13210001
      Townsville           4   13220011
      Learmonth            6   13320112
      Alice Springs        4   13210002
      Culgoora             3   13210001
      Gingin               4   12210112
      Canberra             4   13210011
      Launceston           6   23310112
      Hobart               4   13210002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   12300001
      Casey                9   33331012
      Mawson              23   54222126
      Davis               10   33333111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1322 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     5    Quiet
30 Sep     5    Quiet
01 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly at Quiet levels on 
the UT day 28 September across the Australian region, with an 
Unsettled period between 28/0300 UT and 28/0900 UT. The outlook 
for the next two days (UT day 29-30 September) is for the magnetic 
activity to be mostly Quiet. Magnetic activity may become Quiet 
to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active periods, on 1 October 
due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels on UT day 28 September. The Niue Island Region 
experienced mild MUF depressions during the local day. Mostly 
near predicted monthly MUF values are expected for the Australian 
region on UT days 29-30 September and 1 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    52800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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