[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 27 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 26 September,
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 27-29
September, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 26/1612 UT. The solar wind speed during the last
24 hours fluctuated between 400 km/s and 500 km/s. The IMF Bt
varied between 3-6 nT. The IMF Bz varied between -4 to +2 nT
with a southward period around -4 nT between 26/1100-1430 UT.
The two day outlook (27-29 September) is for the solar wind speed
to gradually return to nominal conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11212212
Cocos Island 2 11101201
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 11212212
Learmonth 4 11112212
Alice Springs 4 11112211
Culgoora 5 11212212
Gingin 6 11203222
Canberra 4 11212211
Launceston 8 11313312
Hobart 4 11202211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 10314411
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 18 33323335
Davis 10 32333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2213 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 5 Quiet
28 Sep 5 Quiet
29 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on the UT day 26 September. The Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the last
24 hours. The outlook for the next two days (UT day 27-28 September)
is for the magnetic activity to be mostly quiet and occasionally
may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
26 September, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for today,
UT day 27 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, on UT day 26 September, MUFs over the Australian
region were mostly near monthly predicted levels. The highest
MUF depressions of 20% below monthly predicted levels occurred
over the Niue island during midnight. Near predicted monthly
MUF values are expected for the Australian region regions on
27-29 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 14.6 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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