[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 18 issued 2335 UT on 25 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 26 09:35:29 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 25/1735 UT and the visible disk remains spotless.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0627 UT then
gradually decreased over the UT day 25 Sep, currently ~405 km/s.
The IMF Bt varied between 1-7 nT. The IMF Bz varied between -6
to +4 nT with a southward period around -6 nT between 25/0900-1100
UT. Solar wind speed is is expected to continue to decrease on
26 Sep returning to ambient levels for 27-28 Sep. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 23244222
Cocos Island 5 1222-121
Darwin 8 22233122
Townsville 13 23244222
Learmonth 13 23244222
Alice Springs 12 23244122
Culgoora 12 23144122
Gingin 13 32144232
Canberra 11 22144222
Launceston 15 23254222
Hobart 12 23144222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 23 13166110
Casey 13 34333122
Mawson 17 34324234
Davis 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2222 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 5 Quiet
28 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the Australian region on 25 Sep with an isolated Storm period
in the Antarctic region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 26 Sep then mainly Quiet with possible Unsettled periods
on 27-28 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian region experienced Minor MUF depressions
mainly during the local day with some regions experiencing Minor
MUF enhancements during the local night. The Niue Island Region
experienced Minor MUF depressions during the local day and night.
The Antarctic experienced MUFs near predicted monthly values.
Near predicted monthly MUF values are expected for the AUS/NZ
regions on 26-28 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 69200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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