[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 18 issued 2352 UT on 21 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Sep 22 09:52:17 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery 
and the visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed was ~325km/s 
at 00UT and increased slightly over the UT day to be 363km/s 
at 22UT with a notable step increase in velocity to 391km/s at 
2308UT. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+2nT and -3nT between 00UT and 13UT. A steady increase in Btotal 
has been observed since then, rising from 2nT to 10nT with Bz 
reaching -9nT while the phi angle appears to have swung from 
180 degrees between 20UT and 22UT. An increase in solar wind 
is expected on 22Sep due to the anticipated arrival of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole and associated transient 
effects. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels 
for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01011113
      Cocos Island         3   11000113
      Darwin               4   02011113
      Townsville           4   11011123
      Learmonth            5   01112213
      Alice Springs        3   01011103
      Culgoora             3   01011113
      Gingin               5   01101214
      Canberra             3   01001113
      Launceston           6   12112123
      Hobart               5   12012113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   01002013
      Casey                8   23211223
      Mawson              11   21001245
      Davis                4   02111122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              NA  1001 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Sep    20    Active
24 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the Australian 
region for 21Sep with occasional Unsettled periods for Antarctic 
regions. Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 22Sep. Unsettled 
to Active conditions with possible minor Storm periods for 23Sep 
and Unsettle conditions for 24Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies near predicted monthly values 
for 21Sep across all latitudes, with minor depressions observed 
for low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 
the next 3 days with possible enhancements for low to mid latitudes 
and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Continued minor MUF depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions observed over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted 
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar 
HF conditions are expected over the next 3 days with chance of 
variable ionospheric support for Equatorial/Northern AUS to Southern 
AUS/NZ regions with possible enhancements and disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    28900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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