[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 16 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, on UT day 15 September.
For the next three UT days, 16-18 September, solar activity is
expected to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the UT day, 15 August, via LASCO C2 imagery
up to 15/1734 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours
declined from 650 km/s to 450 km/s in response to the waning
effects of the Northern polar coronal hole. The total IMF Bt
varied mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz
component of IMF fluctuated between +1/-2 nT during the last
24 hours. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline today
(UT day 16 Sep) as the current coronal effects further wane.
>From UT 17 Sep or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance
again as another recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole reaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21222001
Cocos Island 3 11212001
Darwin 3 21212001
Townsville 4 21222101
Learmonth 5 21223101
Alice Springs 3 11222001
Culgoora 4 1222200-
Gingin 5 21222111
Canberra 4 22222000
Launceston 7 2233210-
Hobart 5 2132200-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 12322100
Casey 9 32323112
Mawson 29 35443236
Davis 17 22443215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 5422 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
18 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 15 September, while in the Antarctic
region geomagnetic activity reached Minor Storm levels. During
the next 2 UT days, 16-17 September, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay mostly at Unsettled to Active levels with
some possibility of isolated Minor Storm periods on 16 September
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
15 September with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some low- and high-latitude locations. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected during the next 3 UT days, 16-18 September, in the
mid and low latitude regions. Moderately degraded HF condition
are possible on 17 September in high latitude regions due to
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 8 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions on UT day 15 September with periods of minor MUF enhancements
in the during local night. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
in the Australian/NZ regions during the next 3 days UT days,
16-18 September. Moderately degraded HF condition are possible
on 17 September in the Antarctic and Southern Australian Regions
in response to the anticipated geomagnetic disturbance associated
with a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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