[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 18 issued 2331 UT on 14 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Sep 15 09:31:27 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, on UT day 14 September. 
Because of the coronal hole effect, the solar wind speed stayed 
at high levels throughout the UT day, varying in the range 440-640 
km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT during 
the day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +4/-6 nT 
during the last 24 hours. There was one significant period of 
negative Bz, from 0045 UT to 0220 UT, where Bz reached -6 nT. 
For the next three UT days, 15-17 September, solar activity is 
expected to remain at Very Low levels and the solar wind speed 
to be enhanced due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33232222
      Cocos Island         7   33121221
      Darwin               8   33221221
      Townsville          10   33232222
      Learmonth           10   33232222
      Alice Springs       10   33232222
      Culgoora            10   33232222
      Gingin              10   33232222
      Canberra            10   33232222
      Launceston          11   33232232
      Hobart              11   33232232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    17   44253122
      Casey               13   34332132
      Mawson              34   55543354
      Davis               24   34543244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   4433 3323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    12    Unsettled to Active
16 Sep    16    Active
17 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
over the Australian region on UT day 14 September, while in the 
Antarctic region geomagnetic activity reached Minor Storm levels. 
During the next 3 UT days, 15-17 September, global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to stay mostly at Unsettled to Active levels 
with some possibility of isolated Minor Storm periods at the 
end of 15 September and on 16 September due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
14 September with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in 
some low- and high-latitude locations. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected during the next 3 UT days, 15-17 September. Moderately 
degraded HF condition are possible on 16 September due to expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Sep     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep     6    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep     8    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ 
regions on UT day 14 September with periods of minor MUF enhancements 
in the Northern parts during local night. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected in the Australian/NZ regions during the next 3 days 
UT days, 15-17 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   215000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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