[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 13 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, UT day 12 September.
As anticipated because of the coronal hole effect, the solar
wind speed stayed at high levels throughout the UT day today-
showing slow decline from 570 km/s to 520 km/s during the UT
day. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 nT and 6 nT during
the day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +4/-4 nT
during most parts of the day. The particle density stayed between
4 ppcc and 6 ppcc. Solar wind speed is expected to show a gradual
decrease from the current high levels to the normal levels through
UT days 13 and 14 September as the coronal hole effect is expected
to slowly decline through these days. For the next three UT days,
13-15 September, solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12122221
Cocos Island 4 12111220
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 12122221
Learmonth 6 22122320
Alice Springs 5 12122211
Culgoora 5 21121221
Gingin 5 22121221
Canberra 4 11021221
Launceston 6 12122321
Hobart 4 11121221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 12042210
Casey 13 34421321
Mawson 21 24324453
Davis 61 34923321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 30 4556 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods
possible
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite a strong solar wind stream from the recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole, mostly Quiet conditions were
observed over the Australian region on UT day 12 September. The
likely reason seems to be that the Bz component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field did not show any sustained periods with enough
magnitude in the southward direction. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels with
some possibility of isolated Active periods on 13 September due
to the continued effect of the coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions
are then expected to gradually decline to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 14 September and Quiet levels on 15 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
12 September with periods of minor MUF enhancements in some mid
latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
during the next 3 days (13 to 15 September, UT days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions on UT day 12 September with periods of minor MUF enhancements
in the Southern areas. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in this region during the next 3 days (13 to 15 September, UT
days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 278000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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