[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 12 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, UT day 11 September.
As anticipated, the solar wind speed stayed at high levels throughout
the UT day today- increasing from 500 km/s during the early hours
to around 610 km/s by 0600 UT. Solar wind speed stayed mostly
between 560 km/s and 610 km/s during the rest of the day. The
total IMF Bt showed a gradual decrease from 13 nT to 6 nT during
the day. The Bz component of IMF stayed mostly between +10/-11
nT during the day- staying predominantly negative between 0300
UT and 1100 UT. The particle density stayed close to 10 ppcc
during the first half of the UT day and then around 6 ppcc during
the second half of the day. These variation in the solar wind
parameters can be attributed to the effect of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at high levels (mostly between 500 km/s and 600 km/s) on UT day
12 September and then gradually decline over the following two
days (UT days 13 and 14 September) due to the effect of the coronal
hole. For the next three UT days, 12-14 September, solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 11/1455UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Active
with some Minor Storm periods
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 24443231
Cocos Island 11 23333231
Darwin 14 34343221
Townsville 17 34443232
Learmonth 15 23443232
Alice Springs 14 24343231
Culgoora 13 24333232
Gingin 15 23343341
Canberra 16 24443231
Launceston 21 24454332
Hobart 18 24453231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 30 24565332
Casey 16 44432232
Mawson 47 35553375
Davis 34 34544265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 76 (Active)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 1112 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
13 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Sep 10 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: In response to the anticipated effect of the recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole, mostly Quiet to Active geomagnetic
conditions with some Minor Storm periods were observed over the
Australian region on UT day 11 September. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to stay mostly at Active to Minor storm levels on
12 September, and at Unsettled to Active levels on 13 September
due to the continued effect of the coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions
are then expected to gradually decline to Active and then to
Unsettled and Quiet levels through 14 September. Auroras may be
observed at high latitudes under good observing conditions on
UT day 12 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
11 September with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some low and mid latitude regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected on UT days
12 and 13 September due to the continued increased geomagnetic activity
on these days. HF conditions may start turning back to normal
from UT day 14 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
13 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-12 Sep. Mostly normal HF conditions were
observed in the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 11 September
with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in the Northern
and Central areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected on UT days 12 and 13 September
due to the continued increased geomagnetic activity on these days.
HF conditions in this region may start turning back to normal
from UT day 14 Septembr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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