[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 10 10:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 9 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 10-12 October, solar
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. During the UT
day 9 October the solar wind speed was elevated, varying in the
range 540-620 km/s. The IMF Bt was steady, varying between 3
nT and 6 nT, and the IMF Bz was in the range +5/-5 nT. During
the next UT day, 10 October, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated due to high-speed solar wind streams associated
with the large recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 12343322
Cocos Island 7 11232321
Darwin 11 12343321
Townsville 13 22343332
Learmonth 15 22353322
Alice Springs 12 12343322
Culgoora 11 12343222
Gingin 13 22342422
Canberra 11 12343222
Launceston 15 13344332
Hobart 12 12343322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 31 22565522
Casey 16 34432323
Mawson 35 34543546
Davis 34 24554346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 5543 4221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Oct 12 Unsettled
12 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels
on UT day 9 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Major
Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next 3 UT days,
10-12 October, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Unsettled levels. Isolated Active levels are also
possible because the Earth is still under the influence of high
speed solar wind streams.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
9 October, with periods of strong MUF depressions and enhancements
over the equatorial regions. As a consequence of disturbed geomagnetic
conditions on 7-8 October, mild to moderate MUF depressions are
likely for 10 October at high latitudes in Southern hemisphere
and at low latitudes during the local day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
11 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
12 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 9 October over the Australian region MUFs
were varying between near monthly predicted levels to strongly
depressed values as a consequence of disturbed geomagnetic conditions
on 7-8 October. The highest MUF depression of 40% below monthly
predicted levels occurred over the Northern Australian region
during the local day. The outlook for the next 3 UT days, 10-12
October, is for the MUFs to vary mostly between near monthly
predicted values and mildly depressed ones.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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