[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 18 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 8 10:31:09 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 7 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 8-10 October, solar
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. The solar wind
speed and IMF Bt were near their background values up to ~0955
UT, varying in the ranges 340-360 km/s and 3-5 nT, respectively.
Then the solar wind speed was gradually increasing, the observed
maximum value was 590 km/s. Upon arrival of the corotating interaction
region the IMF Bt was varying in the range 7-18 nT and the IMF
Bz was mostly negative, varying between +10/-13 nT. During the
next 2 UT days, 8-9 October, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated due to HSS associated with the large recurrent
positive polarity north polar connected coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 11133443
Cocos Island 13 11033443
Darwin 13 10133443
Townsville 12 00133443
Learmonth 15 10133453
Alice Springs 13 11133443
Culgoora 13 01133443
Gingin 18 10033553
Canberra 14 00134443
Launceston 19 11134544
Hobart 16 11134444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 01166643
Casey 17 33323344
Mawson 36 22225574
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3121 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
09 Oct 20 Active
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 7-9 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet
to Active levels on UT day 7 October across the Australian region.
Quiet to Major Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For
the next UT day, 8 October, the global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to reach Minor Storm levels due to effects associated
with a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected
coronal hole. At times Major Storm levels are also possible.
Then the geomagnetic activity is expected to decline gradually
to Unsettled to Active levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 8 and 9
October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest coast
of Western Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
7 October, with periods of mild MUF depressions over the equatorial
regions. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 8-9 October
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct -18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
10 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were at slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 07 October.
The highest MUF depression of 35% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Northern Australian regions during the local
day. The outlook for the next 3 UT days, 08-10 October, is for
the MUFs to be mostly between near monthly predicted values and
moderately depressed ones due to disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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