[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 7 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 6 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 October, solar
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. The solar wind
speed was near its nominal values, varying in the range 350-375
km/s during the UT day 6 October. The IMF Bt was in the range
1-3 nT and the IMF Bz varied between +2/-2 nT. For most part
of UT day 7 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain
near its nominal levels. Then from late UT 7 October or thereabout,
the solar wind speed is expected to increase due to arrival of
CIR and HSS associated with a large recurrent positive polarity
north polar connected coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21121000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21110100
Townsville 4 21121111
Learmonth 3 21121110
Alice Springs 2 21120000
Culgoora 2 21121000
Gingin 2 11121000
Canberra 2 21121000
Launceston 3 21221100
Hobart 3 21221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11121000
Casey 6 23222111
Mawson 7 43110021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2311 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 20 Active
08 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
09 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 7-9 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet
levels on UT day 6 October across the Australian region. For
the next UT day, 7 October, the global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to reach Active levels and at times to Minor storm
levels due to the anticipated arrival of CIR associated with
a large recurrent positive polarity north polar connected coronal
hole. Active to Minor Storm conditions are expected to continue
on UT day 8 Oct associated with the subsequent HSS from the coronal
hole. The aurora may be visible on the local nights of the 7
and 8 October from Tasmania, coastline of Victoria and Southwest
coast of Western Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
08 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
6 October, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the equatorial
regions. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 7-8 October
due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were at slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 06 October.
The highest MUF depression of 30% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Northern Australian regions during the local
day. The outlook for today (UT day 07 Oct) is for the MUFs to
return to mostly near monthly predicted values. Depressed MUFs
are expected to begin from UT day 08 Oct, due to the likely disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the approaching coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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