[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 30 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 November. 
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible 
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery up to 29/1830 UT. Over the last 24 hours, 
the solar wind speed stayed in the range of around 360 km/s to 
400 km/s. During this period, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 2 nT and 4 nT and the north south component of IMF (Bz) 
fluctuated between +3/-3 nT. The particle density varied between 
4 and 5 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected to stay 
mostly at nominal levels (300 km/s to 350 km/s) on UT day 30 
November and then increase on 1 December. The increase in the 
solar wind speed on 1 December is expected due to the effect 
of a large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. The solar 
activity is expected to stay Very Low for the next three days 
(UT days 30 November to 2 December).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           4   31110012
      Learmonth            2   21100001
      Alice Springs        1   10000002
      Culgoora             2   11100002
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   21110002
      Hobart               2   11100002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   10010001
      Casey                7   33321002
      Mawson               8   41210004
      Davis                6   32311002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     5    Quiet
01 Dec    25    Quiet to minor storm
02 Dec    20    Quiet to minor storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 November 
and is current for 1 Dec only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 29 November. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay mostly at quiet levels 
on UT day 30 November. Due to the effect of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a large and recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole global geomagnetic conditions can rise to minor storm levels 
on UT days 1 and 2 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
02 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed on UT day 
29 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected 
on UT day 30 November as the levels of ionising radiation are 
likely to stay at very low levels on this day. Further MUF depressions 
are likely on UT days 1 and 2 December due to expected rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on these days and due to the continued 
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov   -30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
 Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
01 Dec   -35    10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
02 Dec   -35    10 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 20% were observed across the 
Australian region on UT day 29 November. Similar levels of MUF 
depressions in the Australian region may be expected on UT day 
30 November as the levels of ionising radiation are likely to 
stay at very low levels on this day. Further MUF depressions 
in this region are likely on UT days 1 and 2 December due to 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days and 
due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    47000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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