[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 29 10:30:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 November.
There is currently no sunspot group on the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 28/2112 UT. Over the last 24 hours,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 430 km/s
to around 390 km/s by 2300 UT. During this period, the total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +3/-2 nT, staying positive
most of the times. The particle density varied between 4 and
9 ppcc on this day. Solar wind speed is expected to further decline
through UT day 29 November, stay at nominal levels (300 km/s
to 350 km/s) on UT day 30 November and again increase on 1 December.
The increase in the solar wind speed on 1 December is due an
expected effect of a large recurrent coronal hole. The solar
activity is expected to stay Very Low for the next three days
(UT days 29 November to 1 December).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 3 120-----
Learmonth 2 21000112
Alice Springs 2 11000102
Culgoora 2 11100121
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 3 12100122
Hobart 3 12100121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10000021
Casey 11 44321022
Mawson 10 23211015
Davis 6 23321101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 5 Quiet
30 Nov 4 Quiet
01 Dec 25 Quiet to minor storm
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28 November. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next two UT days
(29 to 30 November). Due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a large and recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole global geomagnetic conditions may rise to minor storm levels
on UT day 1 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Due to the very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed on UT day
28 November. Similar levels of MUF depressions may be expected
for the next 2 days (UT days 29 to 30 November) as the levels
of ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout
this period. Further MUF depressions are likely on UT day 1 December
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 26 November
and is current for 27-29 Nov. Due to the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15 to 30% were observed
across the Australian region on UT day 28 November. Similar levels
of MUF depressions in the Australian region may be expected for
the next 2 days (UT days 29 to 30 November) as the levels of
ionising radiation are likely to stay at very low levels throughout
this period. Further MUF depressions are likely on UT day 1 December
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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