[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 26 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 25
Nov. There is currently one sunspot group on the the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar wind
speed remained at nominal levels, currently ~350km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5nT. The north south component of IMF
(Bz) varied between +/-3nT. The two days outlook (26-27 Nov)
is for the solar winds to enhance weakly in response to the arrival
of wind streams from a minor coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 1 11010100
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 4 22112111
Learmonth 4 32111110
Alice Springs 3 21111101
Culgoora 5 22112112
Gingin 2 21111100
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 4 22122011
Hobart 3 22122000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11012000
Casey 15 35423112
Mawson 7 23121113
Davis 7 23322101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 5 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 25 Nov. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible
Unsettled periods for the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may occur for the
next 24 hours due to low levels of ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near predicted
monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions for 25 Nov. MUFs depressions up to 35% during local night
for Niue Island region. Incidents of Spread F and Sporadic E
were observed at some Australian sites. Similar levels of ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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