[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 25 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day of 24
Nov. A small region 2728(N06E03) has emerged and is currently
quiet and stable. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low
for the next three days. No earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hour, the solar
wind speed stayed ~350km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
2-5nT. The north south component of IMF (Bz) varied between +/-3nT,
mainly neutral. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain
at these nominal levels for the next three days with the chance
of a slight enhancement due to the influence of a minor negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Cocos Island 3 01011212
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 5 11112222
Learmonth 6 12112213
Alice Springs 4 11112212
Culgoora 4 11112212
Gingin 4 11111222
Canberra 1 01011100
Launceston 6 12212213
Hobart 4 12112112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01101101
Casey 7 23221222
Mawson 6 22111213
Davis 6 13221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for 24 Nov with isolated Unsettled periods for Antarctic
region. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible Unsettled
periods for the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may occur for the
next 24 hours due to low levels of ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near predicted
monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions for 24 Nov. MUFs depressions up to 45% during local night
for Niue Island region. Similar levels of ionospheric support
expected for the next 3 days due to continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 33700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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