[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 18 issued 2346 UT on 05 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 6 10:46:34 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: YELLOW
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 05 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 05/2212 UT. Solar
activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next
three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind increased
from 480 km/s to 625 km/s at 5/0508UT, after this the solar wind
has gradually decreased and is currently 540 km/s. Expect the
solar wind to continue to wane as the influence resulting from
the large positive polarity recurrent coronal hole rotates towards
the west limb of the Sun away from the Earth's orbit. The total
IMF (Bt) rose to 14 nT during this period, however has now weaken
to near 3 nT. Bz varied between +11/-9 nT with prolonged periods
of negative Bz resulting in reconnection with the Earth's magnetic
field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Minor Storm to
Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 23343332
Cocos Island 10 23232331
Darwin 15 34343222
Townsville 17 34353222
Learmonth 15 33343332
Alice Springs 14 23352222
Culgoora 13 23343322
Gingin 14 23343332
Canberra 13 23343322
Launceston 20 24453332
Hobart 20 24453332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 40 24574541
Casey 24 55443223
Mawson 43 54444474
Davis 33 34554362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1000 1344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 10 Unsettled
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region ranged
from Minor Storm levels in the first half of the UT day, 05 November,
returning to near Quiet levels by the end of the UT day due to
the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream associated
with a coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Quiet to Unsettled today and tomorrow, 06-07 November,
however at higher latitudes such as Hobart, Tasmania there may
be isolated cases of Active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed with minor degradations
at higher latitudes on UT day, 05 November, due to geomagnetic
storming. For this reason Minor to Moderate MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions may continue today, 06 November,
particularly at higher latitudes. Due to low number of active
regions on the Sun, expect the low levels of ionising radiation
to continue with possible minor depressions to continue on 07-08
November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
07 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 5 November
and is current for 5-6 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 20% over Southern
Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day, 05 November,
due to minor geomagnetic storming and continued very low levels
of ionising radiation. Northern Australia was mostly near predicted
MUF values. Expect this trend to continue today, 06 November.
Due to low number of active regions on the Sun, expect the low
levels of ionising radiation to continue with possible depressions
to continue on 07-08 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 13.8 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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