[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 5 10:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available latest LASCO imagery. On UT day 4 October,
the solar wind speed stayed between 335 and 350 km/s during the
first half of the day and then showed a gradual increase to nearly
465 km/s by 22.30 UT. This increase is consistent with an expected
rise due to the effect of a large positive polarity coronal hole.
On this day, the total IMF (Bt) also increased from 4 nT at the
beginning of the day to nearly 16 nT by 22.30 UT. During this
day, Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT during the first half of
the day and then stayed mostly negative between -4 nT and -11
nT, showing fluctuations between +/-11 nT after 1800 UT. Due
to the effect of this large recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole, the solar wind speed may reach up to around 600 km/s on
UT day 5 November and stay elevated on 5 and possibly 6 November.
Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the
next three UT days, 5-7 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 12211334
Cocos Island 7 12111233
Darwin 8 22211233
Townsville 12 12221344
Learmonth 11 12222334
Alice Springs 9 01211334
Culgoora 9 11211334
Gingin 9 11111343
Canberra 10 11212334
Launceston 14 22322344
Hobart 10 12212343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 12113543
Casey 17 44421234
Mawson 22 22112456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 18 Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods
possible
06 Nov 12 Mostly Unsettled to Active
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region increased
from Quiet to Active levels on UT day 4 November due to the expected
effect of a CIR followed by a high speed solar wind stream from
a large positive polarity coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity
may stay high up to Unsettled to Active levels with a small possibility
of isolated minor storm periods on UT day 5 November and then
show a slow decline from Active to Unsettled levels through 6
November and return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 7 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
06 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels on
UT day 4 November with minor to mild depressions observed in
some mid-latitude regions and minor to mild enhancements in low-latitude
regions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days due to
some possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on
5 and 6 November and due to the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
07 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over
Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 4 November with
minor to mild depressions observed in Northern Australian regions
and minor to mild enhancements further north. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ
regions may be expected for the next three days due to some possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 5 and 6 November
and due to the continued very low levels of ionising radiation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list