[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 27 May,
with few weak B-class flares. There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 UT days
(28-30 May) with a weak chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during UT day, 27 May, via LASCO C2 imagery
up to 27/1936 UT. The solar wind speed up till 27/2000 UT was
near the nominal level of 350 km/s and thereafter increased.
The solar wind speed at the time of writing this report was near
420 km/s. The observed moderate enhancements in the solar wind
speed is in response to high speed stream associated with a polar
connected, positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt during
the last 24 hours was varying in the range 4-6 nT; the Bz component
of IMF was between -3 nT and 5 nT. The outlook for today (28
May) is for the solar wind speed to reach moderately elevated
levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect solar
wind to exhibit a declining trend from UT day 29 May as the coronal
hole effect wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12111000
Cocos Island 2 12110010
Darwin 2 12011011
Townsville 3 12111011
Learmonth 2 12111000
Alice Springs 2 12111000
Gingin 2 11111010
Canberra 2 12011000
Launceston 3 12022001
Hobart 2 12021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 2 12111010
Mawson 7 23112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 0100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 7 Quiet
30 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 27 May. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may reach
unsettled levels, today (28 May), in response to the moderately
elevated solar wind speed associated with passage of the northern
polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT
days (29-30 May) in all regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
29 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 27 May. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (28-30 May). The ionospheric
support is expected to be slightly better today, but still near
monthly predicted levels. This is in to response to the onset
of possible minor magnetic disturbance associated with the passage
of the polar coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 18300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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