[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 27 09:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 26 May,
with only two weak B-class flares. There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 UT days
(27-29 May) with a weak chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during UT day, 26 May, via LASCO C2 imagery
up to 26/1734 UT. The solar wind speed during UT day 26 May was
mostly near the nominal levels of 350 km/s. The IMF Bt during
the last 24 hours was varying in the range 1-5 nT; the Bz component
of IMF was between -3 nT and 3 nT. The two day outlook (27-28
May) is for the solar wind speed to be mostly remain near its
nominal values with a chance of some weak enhancements as a response
to solar wind streams from the northern polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 1 11001011
Learmonth 0 10100000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11011000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 01101010
Mawson 13 12222154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 7 Quiet
28 May 7 Quiet
29 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 26 May. The Australian Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the late
part of UT day 26 May. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly
at quiet levels for the next two days (27 - 28 May) with occasional
unsettled conditions mainly in the high latitude regions associated
with passage of the northern polar coronal hole .
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
29 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT
days (27-29 May) in all regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 26 May. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (27-29 May).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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