[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 25 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 24 May,
with only several B-class flares. The strongest flare B9.8 peaked
at 24/1230 UT and was from Region 2710, which is currently located
at N16E31. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on
the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next 3 days (25 - 27 May) with some chance
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
UT day, 24 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up until 24/1436UT. The
solar wind speed during UT day 24 May declined from 520 km/s
to 450 km/s. This was in response to the waning effects of a
polar connected, positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt during
the last 24 hours was mostly steady near 3 nT; the Bz component
of IMF was between -1 nT and 3 nT. The two day outlook (25 -
26 May) is for the solar wind speed to continue to decline towards
background levels as the coronal hole effects further wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12110000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 2 12120000
Alice Springs 1 12010000
Gingin 1 11110000
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 12110000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 24211110
Mawson 14 34412233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2333 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 6 Quiet
26 May 6 Quiet
27 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 24 May. The Australian Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the early
part of UT day 24 May. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly
at quiet levels and occasionally may reach unsettled level, today
(25 May). Quiet conditions are expected from 26 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for today (25 May)
in all regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 24 May. Expect mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three days (25 - 27 May).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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