[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 18 issued 2336 UT on 22 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 23 09:36:49 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 22 May, 
with only few B-class flares. The largest flare B8.9 peaked at 
22/1459 UT and came from the NE limb of the sun. It is thought 
to be associated with another sunspot region which will soon 
rotate to the earthward facing side. The current numbered sunspot 
region (Region 2710) is located at N15E51 and appears to be stable. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 
3 days (23 - 25 May) with a chance of C-class flares and a remote 
chance of an isolated M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed during UT day, 22 May, via LASCO C2 imagery up until 
22/1636UT. The solar wind speed up till 22/1600 UT was near the 
nominal level of 300 km/s and thereafter increased. The solar 
wind speed at the time of writing this report was near 400 km/s. 
The observed moderate enhancements in the solar wind speed is 
in response to the anticipated arrival of high speed stream associated 
with a polar connected, positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF 
Bt was near 4 nT till 22/1200 UT and thereafter peaked to near 
10 nT due to the arrival of the corotation interaction region 
(CIR) associated with the coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF 
was between -7 nT and 7 nT, with only short-lived periods of 
significant southward component. The outlook for today (23 May) 
is for the solar wind speed to reach moderately elevated levels 
as the effects of the coronal hole persist. Expect solar wind 
to show a declining trend from UT day 24 May as the coronal hole 
effect wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   00212211
      Cocos Island         2   01112110
      Darwin               4   01212211
      Townsville           4   01212211
      Learmonth            3   00212210
      Alice Springs        3   00212210
      Gingin               2   00201210
      Canberra             3   01201211
      Launceston           3   00202211
      Hobart               2   00201211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00200100
      Casey                5   12212211
      Mawson              12   22122253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 May     7    Quiet
25 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 22 May. Mostly quiet to 
unsettled magnetic conditions are expected today 23 May in response 
to moderate solar speed streams emanating from a polar connected, 
positive polarity coronal hole. Expect magnetic conditions to 
drop to mostly quiet levels from 24 May as the coronal hole effect 
wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for today (23 May) 
in the low and mid latitudes regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 22 May. Expect mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three days (23 - 25 May). The ionospheric 
support is expected to be weakest today, but still near monthly 
predicted levels. This is in to response to some minor magnetic 
disturbance associated with the passage of the polar coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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