[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 3 09:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last
24 hours with no significant flare activity. The visible disk
is spotless and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in
the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed decreased from
414km/s at 00UT to be 368km/s at the time of this report. The
north south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -4nT
and +5nT with no sustained southward periods. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain at background/ambient levels over the next
3 days after which it is expected to be influenced by a high
speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located negative polarity
coronal hole. Solar activity will be Very Low for 03May-05May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin - --------
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 6 23321101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor MUF enhancements recorded in high latitude areas
and occasional depressions for low and mid latitudes. HF conditions
and maximum user frequencies are expected to be near monthly
predicted values for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours. MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Periods of minor MUF depressions observed
in Equatorial and Northern AUS regions and enhancements for Antarctic
regions. Similar HF conditions expected over the AUS/NZ region
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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