[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 18 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:31:17 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels over the last 
24 hours with no significant flare activity. The visible disk 
is spotless and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in 
the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 
390-450km/s over the UT day. The north south component of the 
IMF (Bz) ranged between -2nT and +5nT with no sustained southward 
periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels 
over the next 3 days while solar activity will be Very Low.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Culgoora             0   01000001
      Gingin               -   --------
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Launceston           1   11000002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                3   22200001
      Mawson               3   21201002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              5   2111 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     5    Quiet
03 May     5    Quiet
04 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements recorded in some 
low latitude areas and occasional depressions for mid latitudes. 
HF conditions and maximum user frequencies are expected to be 
near monthly predicted values for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of 
the AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements 
observed in Equatorial regions and minor depressed conditions 
for Northern AUS regions. Similar HF conditions are expected 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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