[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 22 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 21 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Solar
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours from 415km/s to 320km/s,
currently stepped up to 350km/s. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-4nT
during this period. Btotal ranged between 2-5 nT . The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near nominal levels to slightly
enhanced over the next two days. On day three, 24 March, expect
the solar wind to increase to moderate to strong levels due to
a negative polarity coronal hole connected to the southern pole
of the Sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11000020
Cocos Island 1 11000020
Darwin 2 12000021
Townsville 2 11000121
Learmonth 3 11010030
Alice Springs 1 01000020
Culgoora 2 11000021
Gingin 2 10000130
Canberra 1 11000020
Launceston 3 12000131
Hobart 1 01000020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01000010
Casey 10 24311132
Davis 6 22211131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3300 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 30 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions prevailed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. The Antarctic region was Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active levels. Expect Mostly
Quiet conditions to prevail over the next two days with a possibility
of isolated cases of Active to Minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
On day 3 expect the geomagnetic activity to increase to mostly
Active levels with isolated periods of Minor to Major Storm levels
due to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with near
predicted to moderately depressed MUFs observed. Expect a return
to mostly normal HF conditions for this period in the solar cycle
for the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions varied between near predicted and minor
depressions for 21 March. Expect near predicted MUFs over the
next three days. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E over
Niue Station.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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