[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 18 issued 2351 UT on 16 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Mar 17 10:51:01 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 16Mar. There were no 
earthward directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO coronagraph 
imagery and there are currently no numbered regions on the visible 
disc after region 2701 (S12W21) decayed over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed (Vsw) was approx ~500km/s between 00UT-07UT 
after which it gradually declined to ~420km/s at 16UT. Solar 
wind speed is currently 450km/s at the time of this report and 
is expected to remain elevated over the next 24-48 hours due 
to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from the northern 
hemisphere located negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) was predominantly southward for most of the UT day ranging 
mostly between +/-5nT with some notable brief southward excursions 
reaching -7nT to -9nT at times. Very Low levels of solar flare 
activity are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   23333433
      Cocos Island         8   22123322
      Darwin              12   23233323
      Townsville          15   23333433
      Learmonth           16   23234433
      Alice Springs       13   23233333
      Culgoora            14   23333333
      Gingin              17   23333434
      Canberra            13   13333333
      Launceston          17   23334433
      Hobart              15   23333433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    28   24455532
      Casey               19   44333334
      Mawson              67   56444757
      Davis               31   44433635

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   4313 1334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    14    Quiet to Active
18 Mar    12    Unsettled
19 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Active 
conditions are expected for 17Mar due to elevated solar wind 
speeds under the influence of a northern hemisphere located negative 
polarity recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for 18Mar-19Mar as coronal hole effects are expected 
to diminish during this time.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with notable 
enhancements for low-mid latitudes to occasional periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitude regions. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Mar    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 16Mar with brief 
enhancements during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ, 
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. MUF's expected to be near 
predicted monthly values for all regions with possible mild depressions 
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:   337000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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