[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 18 issued 2348 UT on 15 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Mar 16 10:48:39 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed in the available 
LASCO coronagraph imagery and newly numbered region 2701 (S12W07) 
is small at only 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere. Solar wind 
speed (Vsw) gradually increased from 440km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s 
at the time of this report due to the influence of a high speed 
solar wind stream from the northern hemisphere located negative 
polarity recurrent coronal hole. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +7nT and 
-5nT with only brief sustained southward Bz periods. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain elevated over the next 2 days. Very 
Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next 
three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32131332
      Cocos Island         7   31121232
      Darwin               8   32131222
      Townsville           9   32231322
      Learmonth           12   32131343
      Alice Springs       10   32131332
      Culgoora             7   32121222
      Gingin              10   32121333
      Canberra             9   32131322
      Launceston          13   32241333
      Hobart               9   22231332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    17   21152532
      Casey               17   44431233
      Mawson              43   64332375
      Davis               26   53332363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   0011 1333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
17 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
18 Mar    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 13 March and 
is current for 14-16 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
observed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 16Mar-18Mar with 
the chance of Active periods due to elevated solar wind speeds 
under the influence of a northern hemisphere located negative 
polarity recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with notable 
enhancements for low-mid latitudes to occasional periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitude regions. HF conditions 
expected to range from near predicted monthly values to slightly 
depressed conditions over the next 3 days due to geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 15Mar ranging from 
brief enhancements to minor depressions for Southern AUS/NZ, 
Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for 16Mar-18Mar with increased chance of mild depressions due 
to elevated geomagnetic activity during this time.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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