[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 18 issued 2333 UT on 01 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 2 10:33:10 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 1 March. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
for 1 March up to 01/1624 UT. During the last 24 hours, the solar
wind speed decreased from around 430 km/s to currently around
360 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1-5 nT and the Bz varied
between approximately -4 to +2 nT. Very Low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 02-04 March.
Solar winds may become moderately enhanced on 02-03 March due
the possible influence of a positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11011131
Cocos Island 3 00001131
Darwin 3 11011121
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 5 11021231
Alice Springs 2 10011121
Culgoora 3 11011121
Gingin 4 01011132
Canberra 1 00010021
Launceston 5 11122131
Hobart 4 01112131
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01122010
Casey 14 34422232
Mawson 38 24332376
Davis 11 22332242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1202 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of Active
periods
03 Mar 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of Active
periods
04 Mar 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region, with a period of Unsettled conditions, during the UT
day 1 March. The Antarctic region experienced mainly Quiet to
Active levels. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 2-3 March,
with the chance of Active periods due to the possible influence
of a positive polarity coronal hole, then Quiet to Unsettled
on 4 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
03 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
04 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region, with minor depressions during the local
day in the Northern Australian and Niue Island regions, during
the UT day 1 March. There were also isolated cases of Sporadic
E blanketing over Australian ionosonde sites. MUFs may experience
minor to moderate depressions on 02-03 March, depending on the
arrival of possible geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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