[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 1 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 February. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery for 28 February up to 28/2048 UT. During the last 24
hours, the solar wind speed decreased from 506 km/s to currently
around 430 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1-6 nT and the Bz
varied between +/-4 nT. Very Low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 01-03 March. Solar winds
are expected to continue to return to nominal values on 01 March,
then may become enhanced again on 02-03 March due the possible
influence of a positive polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 2 01011111
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 4 11122111
Learmonth 5 11122122
Alice Springs 3 10122012
Culgoora 3 11122011
Gingin 5 21122122
Canberra 2 11022001
Launceston 6 12133111
Hobart 5 01133111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 02144100
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 16 33322344
Davis 11 23333311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 3511 5321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 4 Quiet
02 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Mar 11 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region, with a period of Unsettled conditions in Tasmania, during
the UT day 28 February. The Antarctic region experienced Quiet
to Active levels. Expect mainly Quiet conditions for 1 March.
Conditions may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on 2 March
due to the possible influence of a positive polarity coronal
hole, then Quiet to Unsettled on 3 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
03 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region, with moderate depressions during the local
day in the Northern Australian regions, during the UT day 28
February. There were also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing
over Australian ionosonde sites. For 1 March, MUFs are expected
to return to near monthly predicted levels. MUFs may experience
minor to moderate depressions on 02-03 March, depending on the
arrival of possible geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 262000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list